On May 24, 2008, the UFC World Lightweight Championship will be fought between BJ ‘The Prodigy’ Penn and Sean ‘The Muscle Shark’ Sherk. Coming Live from MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas, this bout is being billed as a grudge match between two of the greatest lightweights ever.

Numerous factors will determine which warrior will be left standing to take the title at UFC 84: Ill Will. Below are just a few variables that may help influence the way the tide turns at this historic showdown:

·        BJ’s body is like rubber. While commentating at UFC 80, Sean Sherk said of Penn, “Flexibility is what separates BJ from most of the other fighters out there.” Finding a training partner with such elasticity to work with would be virtually impossible for Sherk, and Penn knows how to apply, and contort his way out of, most holds and submissions.

·        Sean has such a strong and stocky build. Whilst Penn can use his reach advantage for leverage, Sherk knows how to use his shorter limbs and compact body to ‘turtle-up’ and resist being submitted.

·        Always questionable in the past has been BJ’s fitness. At the UFC 84 media conference, Penn assured everyone that he was in the best shape of his life. “I’ve done my aerobic, anaerobic, my muscle endurance… I’ve tried to do everything that I can possibly do… I’m coming to win the fight, and people can say all they want. Maybe this will be the fight that they turn around and say, ‘Look, BJ finally got himself in shape.’” Only time will tell if that’s good enough for Sherk, who has gone the distance in his last three fights – two of them being five 5-minute rounds.

·        During the media conference, Penn continually referred to Sherk’s being stripped of the title for taking a forbidden substance, and BJ worked overtime to get in Sherk’s head. This psychological warfare will either wear away at The Muscle Shark or will make him more determined to snatch back the title that he insists is rightfully his.

·        Penn has shown that he possesses heavy hands. In the opening seconds of his match with Joe Stevenson, The Prodigy knocked his opponent to the canvas with a lightning jab, and he was happy to stand and bang with Stevenson for the first half of round two, before pounding Joe to the ground.

·        Sean has said he believes his boxing to be better than BJ’s. At the media conference, he said he was ready to fight BJ in a stand-up battle if necessary. “Whatever happens happens. I’m fully prepared to take this fight wherever it needs to go. My jiu jitsu game feels better than it ever has, my wrestling feels better, my boxing feels better, my conditioning’s great, so I’m not worried. I’m comfortable wherever the fight ends up. I’ve been doing this stuff for a long time, I’ve had forty fights, and I’ve been in bad positions and situations, and I always fought my way out of them, so I’m pretty comfortable with whatever happens.”

·        Penn has been able to overpower other competitors in the past and set the pace. He plans to dictate the play with Sherk. “Yep, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. I’m going to come out… I’ve changed nothing in my game… It’s like fighting Chuck Liddell: You know what he’s going to do, but can you defend it? You know what Randy Couture’s going to do, but can you defend it? Well, you know what I’m going to do: I’m going to come at you, and I’m going to try to punch you. I’m going to try to take you down and submit you. If I’m on my back, I’m going to try to stand up. I’m going to try to do everything you’ve ever seen me try to do in a fight. That’s all I’m going to do, and that’s on him now to try to start whatever he wants to do. 

     “But I’ve got one hundred percent faith in my game, and I’ll never change my game plan. I’m just going out one hundred percent, balls out – this is the UFC  – not mere boxing, so starting from the first minute of the fight, I’m coming full speed and I’m going to try to win the fight,” says Penn. 

·        Sean has a strong wrestling background, which has provided him with excellent positioning – a quality that could frustrate Penn and cause him to gas if he doesn’t achieve his objective after the early onslaught.

·        Sean likes to take his opponents down early. He took Franca straight down with a body slam, but got caught in a guillotine. Sherk also walked into a big knee from Franca in the early stages of round two. Penn is likely to have something waiting for Sherk when he tries to take him down. And although Sean has left himself open in the past, he can take plenty of punishment right up to the bell.

·         BJ has the ability to cut his adversaries with grazing elbows and to instill panic in their game. Kenny Florian cut Sherk open in their fight, but Sean soldiered on and took the victory by unanimous decision.

·        There is also the issue of Sean’s absence from the Octagon since July 2007, which he shrugs off. “I’m not concerned about ring rest. You know, I’ve been competing since I was seven years old. I’ve got 500 competitions under my belt, so ring rest isn’t going to be an issue for me. I trained for fights every single day. I don’t really take any time off. It shouldn’t be an issue as far as preparation… I feel one hundred percent confident and a hundred percent prepared, mentally and physically. I’m ready to go.”

·        After BJ sliced up and subdued Stevenson, he revealed the beast inside by licking the blood off his gloves. Sherk was confident when he met Penn in the Octagon after the fight, and showed he was a cold, calculating beast.

·        At UFC 73, Sean dominated Hermes Franca in jiu jitsu and wrestling, but The Muscle Shark has been unable to stop his last three fights from going to the judges. The obvious question is: Can Sean Sherk finish BJ Penn?